Breckenridge Real Estate Market Update - Updated January 2023

2022 Breckenridge Real Estate Market Summary

Q4 2022 Summit County Real Estate Market Summary

In this, our final Summit County real estate market update for 2022, we’ll be looking at both how the real estate market performed in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year as well as the full calendar year 2022 compared to 2021. Stay tuned for a lot of surprising information as the real estate market took a lot of twists and turns last year. How will that affect the Summit County real estate market in 2023? We’ve got some predictions about how mortgage interest rates and short term vacation rental restrictions will impact the Breckenridge and Summit County markets.

Let’s begin by taking a look at how the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to that same period in 2021. We often see a flurry of activity in Q4 each year as buyers hurry to complete their purchases before ski season. Everyone wants to have their new ski property ready to use and rent for the upcoming season. That was not the case in 2022.

In all four of our quarterly reviews last year, we reported that the total number of transactions in Summit County were down year over year. For Q4 of 2022, the total number of closed transactions (332 sales) was down a shocking 41% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 (562 sales). Certainly the limited inventory contributed to that situation, but there was a broader concern from buyers that rising inflation and increasing mortgage interest rates were enough to cause them to delay a Summit County purchase.

In two of our three previous quarterly reports from 2022 we noted that the total dollar volume resulting from the sales was down by an amount equal to the percentage pullback in number of sales, which is indicative of a flattening in prices. The Q4 numbers from 2022 continue that trend with a 41% reduction in the dollar volume from all sales - $410 million this year compared to $696 million in the fourth quarter last year.

The Summit County buyers have spoken - there’s enough uncertainty in the broader markets that they can and will be patient with their purchase of Summit County real estate.

Breaking the numbers down by property type doesn’t reveal any major discrepancies. The number of single family home sales throughout the county were down 39% year over year while multi-family property sales (condos and townhomes) were off 42% compared to last year.

How did prices fare in Q4 this year compared to the same time last year? In a word, prices were flat! The average sales price for all property types in the last quarter of this year was $1,235,695 which is down slightly ($2747) from the average sales price of $1,238,442 last year. Single family home prices inched up by 4% this year to an average sales price of $2,046,740. Condos and townhomes saw a 6% decline in average sales price year over year to $839,266.

As we drill down to the Breckenridge market specifically, it’s interesting to note that the buyer hesitation had a larger impact on the number of sales and average prices than it did on the broader Summit County market. For all property types, there were 53% fewer sales in Q4 2022 than the previous year (109 versus 234) and the dollar volume resulting from those sales was down 55%. Single family home sales were down 47% while multi-family sales were off by a whopping 58% compared to last year.

Most surprising of all the Breckenridge statistics is the fact that the average sales price of condos and townhomes dropped by 19% compared to Q4 last year! For all those buyers out there who told us that they are waiting to see a reduction in the price of condos and townhomes before buying in Summit County, this may be your time!

Let’s now shift our focus to the calendar year 2022 and how the Summit County real estate market responded to the three major influences we saw to hit our area over the course of the last year: the sharp rise in inflation, the doubling of mortgage rates, and the effect of short term vacation rental restrictions and moratoriums.

Not surprisingly, the full calendar year 2022 saw a similar year over year decline as did the fourth quarter of last year. I’ll highlight for us here some of the main points we noticed in our comparison of the 2022 Summit County real estate market to calendar year 2021.

For the full year there were 36% fewer closed transactions in 2022 compared to 2021. The dollar volume resulting from those sales was down only 28% compared to the previous year, due to the strong price appreciation we saw in the first quarter of 2022 before prices pulled back.

Average sales prices across Summit County for the full year were up by 14% for all property types, up 12% for single family homes and up 13% for multi-family residences including condos and townhouses.

Similar to the Q4 statistics above, when we isolate the Breckenridge real estate market we see a more significant decline in sales and dollar volume with the number of sales falling by 46% compared to 2021 and the resulting dollar volume down by 40%.

Prices across Breckenridge inched up in 2022 compared to the prior year with the average sales price for all property types up 11%. The average sales price of a single family home in Breckenridge last year was $2.355 million, up 8% for the year, while condo and townhome prices averaged $1.1 million, up 10% for the year.

What does 2023 look like?

The question on everyone’s mind remains: what will 2023 look like for the Summit County real estate market? While our crystal ball is still a bit hazy, we do know a few things for certain.

First, the inventory of available properties remains low. In fact, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, recently released a report stating that buyer demand continues to outpace supply around the country. That should keep upward pressure on pricing, all other things being equal.

Of course, all other things are not quite equal. Inflation is likely to continue to play a major role in consumer spending in 2023. If there’s anything we know about the majority of real estate purchases in Summit County, it’s that they are second home, vacation home or investment property purchases, not the purchase of a primary residence. So it’s discretionary spending. If buyers remain cautious due to fears of inflation, the purchase of a second home is not likely to be seen as necessary spending. This should result in a downward pressure on pricing as the number of days it takes to sell a home or condo continues to increase.

Finally, we closed out the year with several consecutive weeks of falling mortgage interest rates. While rates have fallen to the low 6% range as we start the new year, they remain about double what interest rates were just one year ago. And that has certainly caused many buyers to pause their property search because it greatly reduces their buying power. Many economists and mortgage lenders are predicting that rates will fall to the mid-5 percent range by the end of the second quarter or perhaps second half of the year. For many buyers, this may feel like a reprieve from higher rates and they’ll jump back into the market.

For now, it remains a very good time to be a seller in Summit County. Properly priced and properly marketing homes and condos are selling at or near list price. If you’re considering selling this summer, this is a great time to learn about the strategic marketing we use to promote our listings and get them in front of audiences we know are looking for properties similar to yours.

If you’ve been waiting and watching as both prices and interest rates have crept up, this could be an ideal time to secure your dream home in the mountains. As discussed, condos and townhomes have seen a more significant softening in prices. And if you find “the one” today, you can still refinance to lower rates in the coming months and years as interest rates float down as expected.

What’s the Value of my Summit County Property?

If you’re thinking about selling your Summit County property, you’re probably wondering how all of this may affect the value of your home. Complete our Free Market Value request form. We’ll provide you with an up-to-date and accurate estimate of your property’s value, and answer any questions you may have about selling your property. 

We’re also available by phone at (970) 409-4787. Give us a call today to discuss the purchase or sale of your Summit or Park County property. We look forward to serving your real estate needs in Breckenridge and around Summit County!


Q3 2022 Summit County Real Estate Market Summary

For the second consecutive quarter, the Summit County real estate market has seen a decline in both the total number of closed transactions and the dollar volume resulting from those sales. For the two years prior to April 2022, we had been tracking fewer sales year over year, but the dollar volume resulting from those sales was either the same or more than the previous year because prices had been steadily climbing.

That is no longer the case! In our review of the Q3 market data here in Summit County, we can now report the following 4 key takeaways.

Key Takeaways in Q3 2022:

For all of Summit County, the total number of closed transactions this year in the third quarter was down 37% compared to the same period last year. In Q3 this year we saw 383 total sales of all residential property types compared to 611 in 2021. Those numbers hold pretty steady across property types with single family homes selling at 40% fewer this year and multi-family (condos and townhomes) selling at 36% fewer.

Summit County October 2022 Transactions

Breckenridge October 2022 Transactions

As I mentioned in the introduction to this article, the second big takeaway is that prices have now officially stalled around Summit County. The total number of sales was down 37% and the dollar volume from those sales was down 36% compared to the third quarter last year. In our previous analysis by quarter, sales were down but dollar volume was holding steady as a result of our double-digit appreciation. That era has now come to an end.

Summit County October 2022 Dollar Volume

Breckenridge October 2022 Dollar Volume

Summit County October 2022 Average Sale Price

Breckenridge October 2022 Average Sale Price

The third key takeaway from Q3 2022 is that the average Days on Market (DOM) - the number of days it takes a property to sell - has risen significantly. For closed transactions from July through September this year the average days on market increased by 36% from 22 days last year to 30 days this year. Single family home sales paced faster than multi-family sales, but still took 13% longer to sell than last year. The average days on market for condos and townhomes increased by 56% over last year.

Summit County October 2022 Average Days on Market

Breckenridge October 2022 Average Days on Market

And our fourth significant change from Q3 this year compared to last year - price reductions! Last year, during what is always our busiest quarter of the year, we saw 190 price reductions around Summit County for all property types. Would you like to guess what we saw this year? There were nearly 3 TIMES as many price reductions in the third quarter this year compared to 2021 with 565 price reductions.

Summit County October 2022 Number of Price Reductions

What does this mean for you?

If you’re a Buyer: you’ve probably been watching the Summit County real estate market for the last couple years and you may feel like you have been “priced out” of the market here. Well, the good news for you is that we’re likely to see a decline in prices around the County at all property types. Many of our buyers have told us they’ve been waiting for exactly something like this to bring prices back to within reach. If you have a specific property type in mind, please be sure to communicate that to the trusted real estate agent who is assisting you. We can be on the lookout for new, interesting properties that match your dream property.

If you’re a Seller: you have enjoyed the last three years of significant price appreciation! Do you still enjoy your property? If so, that’s great…. we’ll see you on the slopes this winter! If you find that you’re not using it as much as you once did, this could be a great time to sell so you can take advantage of the price appreciation. Ski season is coming, which means we’ll have lots of buyers in town and they’ll be falling in love with Summit County just like you did.

What’s the Value of my Summit County Property?

If you’re thinking about selling your Summit County property, you’re probably wondering how all of this may affect the value of your home. Complete our Free Market Value request form. We’ll provide you with an up-to-date and accurate estimate of your property’s value, and answer any questions you may have about selling your property. 

We’re also available by phone at (970) 409-4787. Give us a call today to discuss the purchase or sale of your Summit or Park County property. We look forward to serving your real estate needs in Breckenridge and beyond!


Q2 2022 Summit County Real Estate Market Summary

Is the Summit County real estate market shifting? Is it cooling? Those are the questions we’ve been getting from buyers and sellers on a daily basis as we enter the peak of our summer selling season. And the answer to both questions is a resounding “yes”!

The data that we’re about to review includes real estate transactions from the second quarter of this year through June 30, 2022. However, in recent weeks we’ve felt a significant pause in the market as buyers are trying to assess how the combination of price appreciation, increasing mortgage interest rates and short term rental license caps and moratoriums will affect not only their purchasing power, but also their enjoyment of a second home or investment property in Summit County.

Key Takeaways in Q2 2022:

The one real concern I have as we review the Q2 numbers this year compared to last year is that we’re looking in the rearview mirror and the changes are happening in the present moment. So, please stick around to the end of this article where we forecast our predictions for the rest of 2022.

The first key takeaway from Q2 is that BOTH the number of closed transactions and the dollar volume resulting from those sales were down significantly throughout Summit County compared to last year. That’s a change from our most recent quarterly reviews. The number of transactions per quarter have been down consistently due to the limited inventory, but the dollar volume resulting from those sales has been pretty consistent each time compared to the previous year. That’s because prices had been increasing significantly. For the first time in a long time, we see the volume falling significantly compared to the prior year.

For all Summit County sales in Q2, the total dollar volume was down 21% compared to the same time in 2021. Breckenridge sales were off a full 25% by dollar volume this year compared to last year. 

Finally, the average days on market (or the time it takes on average for a property to sell) for all property types around Summit County in Q2 of 2022 was only 12 days compared to 19 days during the same period last year. The same was true for Breckenridge sales as we saw a decrease in the days on market by 46% from 26 days last year to only 14 days this year. 

But changes are afoot… 

Predictions for the rest of 2022:

In the early days of the third quarter, in what should be our busiest selling season of the year, we’ve already experienced an increase in the following metrics: Days on Market - up, Number of New Listings - up, Number of Price Reductions - up. 

We predict that the Summit County real estate market will feel the effects of the short term rental restrictions imposed by both the Town of Breckenridge and the Summit County government. Fears of a recession and increasing mortgage interest rates are likely to influence buyers to a more conservative approach to what they will spend on a second home. 

In randomly looking at a few neighborhoods around Summit County where there are active listings, we already see prices that are lower than the most recent sales in those neighborhoods. The last time I produced this report, I predicted a cooling real estate market with price appreciation in the single digits. At this time, I’m forced to revise that prediction to include a slight pullback in prices to below our peak highs of just a few months ago.

What’s the Value of my Summit County Property?

If you’re thinking about selling your Summit County property, you’re probably wondering how all of this may affect the value of your home. Complete our Free Market Value request form. We’ll provide you with an up-to-date and accurate estimate of your property’s value, and answer any questions you may have about selling your property. 

We’re also available by phone at (970) 409-4787. Give us a call today to discuss the purchase or sale of your Summit or Park County property. We look forward to serving your real estate needs in Breckenridge and beyond!


Q1 2022 Summit County Real Estate Market Summary 

Despite what’s happening in the broader financial markets across the country like inflationary pressure and increasing mortgage interest rates, the Breckenridge and Summit County real estate markets remain positive and strong. As a reminder, Summit County wrapped up the 2021 year in real estate with an average sales price that was 25% higher than the average sales price in 2020 and that was on top of the 32% appreciation we saw the previous year. How has the Summit County real estate market started 2022? And what do we predict we’ll see throughout the year? Let’s take a look!

Three Key Takeaways in Q1 2022

It’s no surprise that demand for homes and condos in resort areas remains strong as buyers from around the country have found they can work from anywhere. This holds true for the Summit County real estate market as we find many buyers moving here for a primary residence or purchasing a vacation home where they can spend months at a time, working remotely. Existing owners have also enjoyed spending more time in the mountains, therefore delaying a possible sale of their Breckenridge or Summit County property. 

As a result, we recorded 32% fewer real estate sales in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021. This is directly attributable to a continued lack of inventory for interested buyers. While the total number of transactions around the County was down by nearly one-third, the total dollar volume of those sales was about $400 million, which is only 5% less than last year’s first quarter.

 

The second important takeaway, and this is directly related to the strong demand for the Breckenridge and Summit County real estate markets, is that the average Days on Market for all property types in Summit County in Q1 of 2022 decreased by 54% compared to the first quarter of 2021. This year properties sold in an average of only 23 days compared to 50 days just one year ago. Days on Market is a measure of both buyer demand and how well sellers are pricing their properties. We see a great majority of the homes and condos that are priced appropriately for the market typically selling in the first few days they’re available to buyers.

And the final important item of note is the average sales price around Summit County for all property types. Would you like to take a guess? In the first quarter of 2022 we saw an increase of 30% in the average sales price to $1,379,680. Single family detached homes in Summit County increased in price by 44% year over year to an average sales price in Q1 of $2,376,000 while multi-family properties (condos and townhomes) increased in price by 28% to an average of $889,000. 

Predictions for the rest of 2022

The two biggest factors facing the Breckenridge and Summit County real estate markets in 2022 will be the impact of increasing mortgage interest rates and decreasing buyer confidence. A recent survey by Fannie Mae of home buyers across the country revealed that only 24% of consumers feel that now is a good time to buy a home. Increasing mortgage interest rates effectively reduce the purchasing power of buyers as the escalating home prices around Summit County are in many instances pricing buyers right out of the market. Does this signal the first signs of a shifting housing market? Time will tell. 

What we do know is that if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines and watching the ever-climbing prices of homes in Summit County, waiting for that perfect time to list and sell your resort property, this summer may prove to be just that time. We know buyers return in earnest during the summer months to find their perfect mountain home. Prices remain at record highs, so if interest rates and waning buyer confidence trigger a cooling in the housing market, the summer of 2022 could be the ideal time to sell your Summit County home or condo. 

What’s the Value of my Summit County Property?

If you’re thinking about selling your Summit County property, you are probably wondering how much your home may be worth. Complete our Free Market Value request form. We’ll provide you with an up-to-date and accurate estimate of your property’s value, and answer any questions you may have about selling your property. 

We’re also available by phone at (970) 409-4787. Give us a call today to discuss the purchase or sale of your Summit or Park County property. We look forward to serving your real estate needs in Breckenridge and beyond! 

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